A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
